DINNER last Thursday evening made for one of those rare gilded
moments Julia Gillard must wish were more common in judgments of her
prime ministership.
In the towering atrium of the National Gallery of
Victoria, the soft glow of stained-glass shards illuminating some 200
guests from above, Gillard was praised by a senior businessman for
having the courage to introduce the carbon tax. International Monetary
Fund chief France's Christine Lagarde beamed down from a large video
screen to tell ''dear Julia'' the world was envious of an Australian
economy with ''real leadership'', while Imron Cotan, Indonesia's
ambassador to China, held a mobile phone aloft to snap souvenir photos
as Gillard addressed the crowd.
But one wit really brought the house crashing down, for
me at least, when he privately whispered it was nice of them to throw
Gillard such a flash farewell.
The Prime Minister simply can't shake the stink of the broken
promises and slippery deals. As the wine flowed after her speech, a
common view seemed to be that no one had much listened. But the subject
last Thursday night - what the government likes to describe as Australia
in the Asian century - is an area where Labor deserves credit.
Not for the outcome; the report remains to the seen. Yet
this is one of those times when the journey the government has embarked
upon has proved to be just as important as the destination.
Gillard has promised a white paper on ties with Asia by
mid-year, a strategic blueprint to guide Australia's policy and identify
what more can be done to take advantage of the chances presented.
Former Treasury boss Ken Henry is drafting the report, with the
politicians to put their stamp on the final text.
The result will hardly please everyone. The tough
questions posed by China's growing power, for example, and what this
means in a neighbourhood traditionally dominated by the United States,
are hotly contested. That's part of the reason Labor has vacillated
between ''Asia-Pacific'', which connects America to the region, and
simply ''Asia'' when describing the century ahead. This one report won't
settle that debate.
But where the government has done well is by encouraging
public contributions to the process and drawing together the vast, but
often under-appreciated, knowledge that Australia has about the region.
More than 250 written submissions have been lodged with
the taskforce preparing the debate. Henry has hosted round tables with
business and academics to debate the themes. Online forums are buzzing
away with chatter about what might be included in the final product, all
generating and testing a raft of ideas.
The discussion has escaped the grip of the usual experts,
who - despite years of talking - have never carried the public with
them on the importance of Asia to Australia's future. No better is this
illustrated than regular complaints over the dearth of foreign language
skills in Australia, forgetting people will happily take on a language
when economic links generate a chance to use it. Unless the public is
convinced, elite opinion will never be enough to tie Australia to the
region.
Times have changed, of course, with predictions that
China's economy will soon outstrip the US as the world's largest. Asia
is much bigger than one country and what the government is doing here
should be separated from the defence paper Gillard announced last week.
With Asia, the paper is a chance to sell a positive
message, whereas any stocktake of the military bristles with threats,
jet fighters and warships. This pushes countries apart, but the Asian
paper appears tailored to Australia's need to engage.
The Asian century rhetoric is also a story Labor can
weave into one of wider opportunity, a narrative badly needed for a
government that has never really managed one. Gillard spun out the
themes on Thursday night, stitching together the national broadband
network with the mining tax, carbon pricing with skills training - all
needed, she said, because ''adapting to the Asian century requires a
response from every level of Australian society''.
It's a sales pitch, though it would be brave to predict Labor will be around to deliver on it.
Speaking of predictions, there is a danger in hard
assumptions about what is likely to occur in the world over the next 100
years.
It need not be planes crashing into buildings. Take
Indonesia, for instance, a nation on our doorstep Australians should
know well. Few would have predicted 20 years ago the country it has
become, free of authoritarian rule and with a lively media sector.
Chances are this transformation will last - but are we certain? Thailand
was supposed to have moved on from its troubles with the military with
democracy safely entrenched, until 2006 when the generals decided
otherwise.
Three decades ago no one would have thought China would
be an economic dynamo while Japan was moribund, or that India, with its
gigabyte population, could be an information technology giant.
Labor often gives the impression its survival strategy is
built on the hope that a week is a long time in politics. But one thing
is for sure, a century is just a long time, full stop.
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