Pages

Monday, May 7, 2012

An Asian century maybe, but a lot can happen in 100 years

DINNER last Thursday evening made for one of those rare gilded moments Julia Gillard must wish were more common in judgments of her prime ministership.
In the towering atrium of the National Gallery of Victoria, the soft glow of stained-glass shards illuminating some 200 guests from above, Gillard was praised by a senior businessman for having the courage to introduce the carbon tax. International Monetary Fund chief France's Christine Lagarde beamed down from a large video screen to tell ''dear Julia'' the world was envious of an Australian economy with ''real leadership'', while Imron Cotan, Indonesia's ambassador to China, held a mobile phone aloft to snap souvenir photos as Gillard addressed the crowd.

 
But one wit really brought the house crashing down, for me at least, when he privately whispered it was nice of them to throw Gillard such a flash farewell.
The Prime Minister simply can't shake the stink of the broken promises and slippery deals. As the wine flowed after her speech, a common view seemed to be that no one had much listened. But the subject last Thursday night - what the government likes to describe as Australia in the Asian century - is an area where Labor deserves credit.
Not for the outcome; the report remains to the seen. Yet this is one of those times when the journey the government has embarked upon has proved to be just as important as the destination.
Gillard has promised a white paper on ties with Asia by mid-year, a strategic blueprint to guide Australia's policy and identify what more can be done to take advantage of the chances presented. Former Treasury boss Ken Henry is drafting the report, with the politicians to put their stamp on the final text.
The result will hardly please everyone. The tough questions posed by China's growing power, for example, and what this means in a neighbourhood traditionally dominated by the United States, are hotly contested. That's part of the reason Labor has vacillated between ''Asia-Pacific'', which connects America to the region, and simply ''Asia'' when describing the century ahead. This one report won't settle that debate.
But where the government has done well is by encouraging public contributions to the process and drawing together the vast, but often under-appreciated, knowledge that Australia has about the region.
More than 250 written submissions have been lodged with the taskforce preparing the debate. Henry has hosted round tables with business and academics to debate the themes. Online forums are buzzing away with chatter about what might be included in the final product, all generating and testing a raft of ideas.
The discussion has escaped the grip of the usual experts, who - despite years of talking - have never carried the public with them on the importance of Asia to Australia's future. No better is this illustrated than regular complaints over the dearth of foreign language skills in Australia, forgetting people will happily take on a language when economic links generate a chance to use it. Unless the public is convinced, elite opinion will never be enough to tie Australia to the region.
Times have changed, of course, with predictions that China's economy will soon outstrip the US as the world's largest. Asia is much bigger than one country and what the government is doing here should be separated from the defence paper Gillard announced last week.
With Asia, the paper is a chance to sell a positive message, whereas any stocktake of the military bristles with threats, jet fighters and warships. This pushes countries apart, but the Asian paper appears tailored to Australia's need to engage.
The Asian century rhetoric is also a story Labor can weave into one of wider opportunity, a narrative badly needed for a government that has never really managed one. Gillard spun out the themes on Thursday night, stitching together the national broadband network with the mining tax, carbon pricing with skills training - all needed, she said, because ''adapting to the Asian century requires a response from every level of Australian society''.
It's a sales pitch, though it would be brave to predict Labor will be around to deliver on it.
Speaking of predictions, there is a danger in hard assumptions about what is likely to occur in the world over the next 100 years.
It need not be planes crashing into buildings. Take Indonesia, for instance, a nation on our doorstep Australians should know well. Few would have predicted 20 years ago the country it has become, free of authoritarian rule and with a lively media sector. Chances are this transformation will last - but are we certain? Thailand was supposed to have moved on from its troubles with the military with democracy safely entrenched, until 2006 when the generals decided otherwise.
Three decades ago no one would have thought China would be an economic dynamo while Japan was moribund, or that India, with its gigabyte population, could be an information technology giant.
Labor often gives the impression its survival strategy is built on the hope that a week is a long time in politics. But one thing is for sure, a century is just a long time, full stop.





Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/an-asian-century-maybe-but-a-lot-can-happen-in-100-years-20120507-1y8zf.html#ixzz1uFvoKb3K

No comments:

Post a Comment